All 2017 year Bitcoin (BTC) was in the spotlight – pessimists constantly predicted “bubble collapse”, but the cryptocurrency again and again set new heights.
At the peak, BTC cost reached $ 20,000, which is 20 times more than the rate at the beginning of 2017. The rates of growth of Bitcoin and other alt-coins that precisely made cryptocurrency investments as a true trend in 2017 and there is a chance that next year this trend will continue.
Today we will focus on Bitcoin, try to figure out its phenomenon and understand what awaits it in 2018 – a crash or another wave of growth.
- 1 What determines Bitcoin rate
- 2 Is it possible to predict an exact Bitcoin rate for 2018?
- 3 Bitcoin forecast for January 2018
- 4 Bitcoin price in 2009
- 5 Bitcoin price changes for 5 years
- 6 How many Bitcoins exist and when the last one will be mined
- 7 Bitcoin Price Prediction For 2018: Growth or Fall
- 8 Conclusion
What determines Bitcoin rate
All crypto money is not provided with real values, and Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. It is valued due to people’s trust and their belief that the BTC tokens will grow in the future.
This leads to the fact that more and more people enter the crypto market, they make investments in BTC (the investors have not heard about other alt-coins), and it pushes the crypt upwards.
All this resembles a self-sustaining chemical reaction, at the start some effort is required for it to go, but then it proceeds without a participation of a person. The similar situation with Bitcoin, in the first years of existence a limited number of people knew about it, everyone looked with concern at the blockchain. As the cryptos are growing in popularity a demand for it is grown, at the current moment it stably exceeds proposal.
Note that a relatively small volume of bitcoins is traded on the market. According to coinmarketcap.com, only 758,229 BTC are circulating on the market per day, which is 4.5% of the total number of the coins. This also affects the rate, creating a deficit and not completely satisfying the demand.
Is it possible to predict an exact Bitcoin rate for 2018?
Not so long ago a curious study was conducted by James Fossett, a leading analyst at Morgan Stanley Holding. His team set out to find out what is a real cost of bitcoin. According to the results of the research, the holding clients were sent a document called “Bitcoin decrypted” and it had an interesting section entirely devoted to the cryptocurrency evaluation.
Fossett came to such conclusions:
- Bitcoin can not be considered a normal currency because there is no interest rate in it;
- it can be considered as a payment network with serious scaling problems;
- despite its inapplicability in a real life (the same gold is used, for example, in industry), investors still attribute it some value.
As a result, the analysts confirmed with their conclusions that the cryptocurrency completely depends on the users’ trust and whether it can be used to assess any assets. By the way, this is true in relation to any currency.
As for a forecast of Bitcoin exchange rate for 2018, in theory its cost may drop to $ 0, this will happen if the technology will not be in demand and the BTC tokens can not be used to pay for goods and services.
In practice, this scenario is hard to believe, there were ups and downs in the first cryptocurrency history, but a complete collapse of Bitcoin is unlikely. And the point here is not even in the BTC, but that the blockchain appeared to be an attractive technology.
Bitcoin forecast for January 2018
The cryptocurrency is very difficult to predict using standard methods, graphical and indicator analysis have no special effect here. The extremely high volatility, as well as a sensitivity of the market to various kinds of rumors, is affecting.
For an example, let’s look at the BTC/USD chart for January 2017. Everything looked normally and hardly anyone in the world could have guessed that after a couple of months the crypto market would begin to fever and Bitcoin would start to grow as a leap.
In the beginning of the next year, important events concerning Bitcoin are absent. So the news background is calm and unless loud statements from regulators (especially Chinese) can greatly affect the crypto market. Well, traditionally – if in any country bitcoin will be legalized, it will lead to its growth.
If, however, we consider an optimistic scenario, then the maximum for January 2018 is to gain a foothold above the level of $ 20,000. With a pessimistic scenario, a return to the range of $ 7000 – $ 8000 is likely.
Approximately at this level, the price was traded before the Segwit2X hardfork, which had not taken place in November, after which the next wave of Bitcoin’s growth started (nothing particularly backed up).
Bitcoin price in 2009
2009 is considered as a date of birth of Bitcoin, although the documentation for it was posted on the network in late 2008. At that time, it fully corresponded to the term “shitcoin” – in translation from English. it means “trash coin”. Bitcoin does not cost much at that time.
What was a rate directly at the time of launch is unknown, the data has been preserved only since October 2009. Then on New Liberty Standard for $ 1 it was possible to buy 1309 BTC tokens.
Curiously enough, you can calculate how many times Bitcoin has grown since then, if you take into account the peak cost of the crypt in $ 20,000 for 1 coin, the value of the crypto currency has increased 26.18 million times since October 5, 2009.
Investing in Bitcoin in 2009 would be the most effective investments in the history of mankind, investing a couple of dozen dollars then, it was possible to become a dollar multimillionaire in just 8 years.
The period of 2009-2011. can be called a cryptocurrency formation, only in 2011 the price of BTC was equalized and after that serious fluctuations of its rate began to occur. Prior to this, the idea of digital money was treated as a fun experiment, nothing more.
Bitcoin price changes for 5 years
Now let’s take a closer look at the key events in the life of the first cryptocurrency in the last five-year period, which is interesting:
- 2012 – everything is relatively calm, BTC all year can not gain a foothold above $ 15/1 BTC. During the year, the exchange rate fell even to $ 2- $ 3 per 1 coin. By the end of the year, the situation began to improve, a positive news background contributed to this – in Europe, the first crypto-exchange certificate acquired a banking license;
- 2013 – the price of BTC grew by an order of magnitude and in a moment even exceeded $ 1000. The year turned out to be rich in events – here and another one theft for more than $ 100 millions, and a sharp increase in the cost of BTC at the background of support from Zynga. In December, there was a huge impact of the news on Bitcoin, only at a backdrop of reports that China closed the BTC China crypto-exchange and in Norway negatively evaluated the prospect of using BTC, its rate fell below $ 500;
- 2014 – on the whole the year was difficult, there were problems with the transaction implementationd at a number of exchanges, there was a scandal with the vice-president of the Bitcoin Foundation. On the other hand, once closed earlier BTC China began to work, and in Ireland, Bitcoin began to be accepted as payment for goods and services. Throughout the year there was a gradual decline in a cost of Bitcoin, by the end of the year 1 BTC was estimated at about $ 300;
- 2015 – a pair of records was set by the number of funds raised by start-ups in Bitcoins. At the beginning of the year, more than $ 75 millions were collected by the Coinbase exchange, and later 21 Inc reported about $ 116 millions collected in the BTC tokens. The number of members of the crypto community is growing, against this background Bitcoin broke a downward trend of the previous year and even tried to storm the $ 500/1 BTC mark;
- 2016 is an excellent year for Bitcoin, firstly BTC became an official means of payment in Japan, then Steam and the Argentinean Uber began to accept payment in the BTC tokens. There was also a negative, the hackers managed to overcome the protection of the Bitfinex exchanger and steal nearly 120,000 BTC from the accounts, at a rate of that time it was an equivalent of $ 60 millions. Despite this, by the end of the year Bitcoin got to $ 1000;
- 2017 is another good year for Bitcoin. The growth is almost 20 times compared with a rate for January 2017. Corrections are also quite deep, but each time they end in the achievement of a new historical maximum.
If you look at the chart as a whole, you can see that BTC cost grows exponentially. At an early stage of the project existence there was a mistrust on the part of newcomers in this field.
Note that such a sharp movement can not last forever, so that a prolonged correction and a decline in growth rates remains probable next year.
How many Bitcoins exist and when the last one will be mined
Bitcoin is positioned as a digital analog of gold and it has some properties inherent in the yellow metal. One of such properties is the finiteness and complexity of extraction.
Just as the amount of gold in nature is limited, so Bitcoin amount can not exceed 21 million coins. This limitation was created by the author himself at the stage of creating the cryptocurrency.
At coinmarketcap.com you can see how many coins are mined. At the time of preparation of the survey, the miners managed to obtain 16 762 925 BTC, that is 79.86% of the total number. The process of mining is arranged in such a way that every 210 000 blocks the reward given for the extracted block is reduced.
The network even has an online clock showing how much time is left before the next award halving. Given this peculiarity of mining, it was estimated that the last block would be produced only by 2140. Mathematically, this can be expressed by a formula for a convergent series
in this formula:
- N – the number of BTC tokens that were mined before the first halve. Then for 1 block 50 BTC were given, that is, 10.5 millions were produced then
- k is s number of the member in the row.
Capacity of devices engaged in bitcoin mining is constantly growing, in order to keep the production rate constant (every 10 minutes one unit is extracted), the complexity also grows. Taking into account a regular halving of the award for the block, a rate of growth of BTC number will also decline. In fact, the number of 21 millions of BTC will not be achieved, the maximum number of tokens will be 20999999.9769. And until 2036, the miners will get 99.2% of the designated maximum emission.
Theoretically, the emergence of super-power devices can break this scheme and the mining will be completed earlier. But this hypothesis looks more like a fantastic scenario, for this one needs productivity growth by orders of magnitude, it is unlikely that any one of the manufacturers will allow it (not even speaking about a fact that it is technically difficult to implement).
Bitcoin Price Prediction For 2018: Growth or Fall
It should be understood that in a case of crypto currency, the blockchain is more important than the tokens of this cryptocurrency itself. Due to the fact that the blockchain began to be used in many areas of our lives, and cryptocurrencies began to grow. Bitcoin “removes cream” in many ways because it is the first successful crypto-currency in the world, hence the increased attention, and record capitalization.
As for the correction of the last days, nothing catastrophic has happened yet. Just goes correction for a sharp increase after the hardfork was canceled. Then, on the wave of optimism, BTC grew up to almost $ 20,000, now there is an understanding that there were no real drivers for growth.
Bitcoin Long-Term Price Predictions for 2018-2019
The forecast of Bitcoin rate for 2018 is generally positive. Those pessimists who talk about the collapse of the bubble, the collapse of the pyramid and other apocalyptic scenarios frankly disingenuous, focusing only on the fact that the crypt is in no way secured.
In fact, we need to look at the issue more broadly, the crypto-currencies take the monopoly from the central banks for the issue of money, a new type of economy is formed, which is more profitable for end users, but unprofitable for the Central Bank.
It is almost impossible to name a concrete rate. For example, crypto-billionaires Winklswes expect a rate of at least $ 100,000 per 1 BTC. At the same time, Emil Oldenburg (the founder of Bitcoin.com) who is another famous person in the crypto community, sold all the BTC tokens and has chosen to invest in Bitcoin Cash.
Next year, it is likely that Bitcoin will be added as a way of paying for goods on popular Internet websites, such as eBay or AliExpress. This would be a powerful support for the first crypto currency.
Most likely in the next few years we expect a continued growth of Bitcoin. Maybe it will not be so sharp and more stretched in time, but to imagine a scenario where it would fall to zero is very hard.
And the point here is not only in the agiotage and the constantly growing demand for it. Just the prospects of using blockchain became visible to the naked eye, so that the crypto currency will not go away and Bitcoin is unlikely to collapse.
Note that there remain risks in the form of a ban on the use of Bitcoin. If something like this is introduced in the EU, China, then the crypto currency will get a serious blow. But there are no prerequisites for this, even in China, where authorities are not particularly good about the crypt, it is not going to prohibit it at the legislative level, rather they are looking for an opportunity for legalization.